The tense trade situation between the United States and China has eased, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, the US dollar exchange rate has fallen, international oil prices have continued to soar, and US benchmark crude oil futures have achieved their largest daily increase since 2016. On Tuesday (April 10th), the May 2018 futures settlement price of West Texas Light Oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.51 per barrel, an increase of $2.09 or 3.3% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.2-65.86; The June 2018 futures settlement price of Brent crude oil on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $71.04 per barrel, an increase of $2.39 or 3.5% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.46-71.34.

Analysts believe that the possibility of a trade war between the United States and China is slowing down, and the rise of the US stock market has also boosted the atmosphere in the oil market. In the past few weeks, the United States has proposed to increase import taxes on Chinese goods, exacerbating market anxiety. China has also taken corresponding measures against Trump's intention to impose tariffs. However, China's statement on further opening up to the world at the Boao Forum for Asia has been interpreted by some analysts as an opportunity to ease the trade war. And emphasize that it should be implemented as soon as possible.

In fact, the market is still paying attention to the response from the United States. The trade war is a decision made by Trump that has a negative impact on the world economy. Whether the trade war can be alleviated depends on the direction of US economic policies, rather than overly interpreting China's response. On Tuesday, the US stock market closed sharply higher, with the Dow Jones Index rising by over 400 points; The S&P 500 index closed 1.7% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is concentrated in technology stocks, closed 2.1% higher.

The situation in the Middle East has also attracted market attention. The Wall Street Journal believes that tensions in Syria have escalated after suspected chemical weapon attacks, prompting investors to worry that new conflicts in the Middle East may affect crude oil production and put pressure on global supply.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, announced on Tuesday that it will keep its daily supply of crude oil for May below 7 million barrels, in line with Saudi Arabia's commitment to the OPEC led production reduction agreement. The Saudi Arabian Ministry of Energy stated in an email statement that oil exports to international customers are still relatively low, although demand has rebounded compared to the previous month due to seasonal factors. A spokesperson for the Saudi Ministry of Energy stated in a statement that Saudi Arabia continues to lead by example, controlling production below the quota under the OPEC cooperation agreement, despite increasing seasonal demand both domestically and internationally.    

The decline in the US dollar exchange rate also supports the commodity futures market priced in US dollars. It is expected that the European Central Bank will soon announce the end of quantitative easing this year, coupled with China's commitment to further opening up at the Boao Forum, which boosted the RMB exchange rate. On Tuesday, the US dollar index, also known as the US dollar, fell to its lowest level in nearly two weeks against a basket of major currencies.

The US Energy Information Administration released its "Energy Shortage Outlook" for April, predicting strong growth in US crude oil production. By the fourth quarter of 2019, US crude oil production will increase to 11.5 million barrels per day, approximately 1 million barrels higher than current crude oil production. The US Energy Information Administration estimates that US crude oil production in March was 10.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 260000 barrels per day compared to February. The estimated daily crude oil production in the United States in 2018 is 10.7 million barrels, which is the highest level in history and an increase of 1.4 million barrels compared to 2017. It is expected that the daily crude oil production in the United States will further increase to 11.4 million barrels in 2015.

The US Energy Information Administration estimates that the average spot price of Brent crude oil in 2018 and 2019 was approximately $63 per barrel, while the average price of West Texas Light Crude Oil (WTI) in 2018 and 2019 was $4 lower than Brent crude oil. The US Energy Information Administration believes that the US benchmark crude oil price for this quarter will be around $60 per barrel.

The market is waiting for the US Energy Information Administration's oil inventory data, and analysts generally believe that US crude oil inventories may decline. On average, 10 analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimated that US crude oil inventories had decreased by 500000 barrels in the week ending April 6th. Four analysts estimated an increase in US crude oil inventories, five analysts estimated a decrease in US crude oil inventories, and one analyst expected inventory to remain unchanged, with an estimated value ranging from a decrease of 4.5 million barrels to an increase of 3.6 million barrels. A Reuters survey also showed a slight decrease in US crude oil inventories last week. However, the survey showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 100000 barrels last week, while gasoline and distillate oil decreased by 2 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels respectively.

After the closing of European and American crude oil futures, the data released by the American Petroleum Institute showed that as of the week of April 6, the U.S. crude oil inventory had increased by 1.8 million barrels, gasoline inventory had increased by 2 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory had decreased by 3.8 million barrels. The highly anticipated crude oil inventory in the Cushing region of the United States has increased by 1.5 million barrels.

The US Energy Information Administration will release weekly oil supply and demand data on Wednesday at 10:30am Eastern Time and 10:30pm Beijing Time.  

On Tuesday (April 10th), Shanghai crude oil futures for September closed at 413.5 yuan per barrel, up 13.0 yuan or 3.25%; The settlement price is 410.1 yuan per barrel, up 9.6 yuan or 1.02%; The trading range is 403.8 to 415.2 yuan. The settlement price of September crude oil futures is approximately $65.02 per barrel. On the same day, all transactions of Shanghai crude oil futures were 618.32 million hands, equivalent to 618.32 million barrels of transactions; The position was 10124 hands, a decrease of 558 hands. Among them, the main contracts delivered in September 2018 had a total transaction volume of 616900, with a holdings of 8992, a decrease of 512.