The market supply is tightening, investors are waiting to see if the United States will impose new sanctions on Iran, and international oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. On Friday (May 4th), the June 2018 futures settlement price of West Texas Light Oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $69.72 per barrel, an increase of $1.29 or 1.9% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.12-69.97; The July 2018 futures settlement price of Brent crude oil on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $74.87 per barrel, an increase of $1.25 or 1.7% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $73.24 to $75.08.

As the deadline for US President Trump to decide whether to let the US withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement approaches, the oil market is becoming even more volatile. If the United States withdraws from the Iran nuclear agreement, it will lead to Iran being subjected to economic sanctions again, hindering its export of crude oil and reducing global supply. Analysts at UBS Wealth Management said in a report: "The impact on the oil market is twofold: if the United States resumes sanctions against Iran, oil prices are bullish, and if the status quo is maintained, oil prices are bearish." At the same time, analysts believe that due to reduced inventory and still insufficient supply in the oil market, the short-term downward space for oil prices is limited.

Analysts believe that if the United States re sanctions Iran, the world could lose 1 million barrels of crude oil supply per day. Since the lifting of Western sanctions on Iran in 2015, Iran's daily crude oil production has increased by approximately 1 million barrels. Therefore, if the United States sanctions Iran again, the total supply of global oil market will decrease by about 1%. Matt Parry, the head of the long-term energy research department at Energy Aspects, believes that although it may not seem too serious, the overall market is currently facing a supply shortage of 700000 barrels per day. Any missing supply from Iran will cause a significant increase in oil prices.

Deutsche Bank analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari believe that given the recent intensification of geopolitical risks and global supply tightening, Brent crude oil may rise to $80 per barrel by the end of the year. It is expected that the market will be further scarce in the second half of the year.

In the past week, the first month futures of light and low sulfur crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange have net increased by $1.62, or 2.38%; The average settlement price per barrel is 68.38 US dollars, which is 0.244 US dollars higher than the previous week. The highest settlement price is 69.72 US dollars per barrel, and the lowest is 67.25 US dollars per barrel; The trading range is $66.56- $69.34. The London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures for the first month rose a net increase of 0.23 US dollars, or 0.31%; The average settlement price per barrel is 74.03 US dollars, 0.36 US dollars lower than the previous week, with a maximum settlement price of 75.17 US dollars per barrel and a minimum settlement price of 73.13 US dollars per barrel; The trading range is $71.66- $75.41.

The online operation of oil drilling platforms in the United States has grown for five consecutive weeks to its highest level in three years. According to the data released by Baker Hughes, the oilfield service agency of General Electric Company, the number of online drilling wells in the United States was 834 in the week ended May 4, 9 more than the previous week and 131 more than the same period last year. The report shows that Oklahoma added 2, Texas added 2, New Mexico added 6, Louisiana added 1, Colorado added 1, North Dakota added 1, and Arras added 1. This week, there were 19 offshore platforms in the United States, an increase of 1 compared to the previous week and the same period last year. Baker Hughes data also showed that 196 natural gas wells were drilled in the United States during the same period, one more than the previous week, and 23 more than the same period last year. Among them, there were 1011 U.S. onshore oil and gas platforms, 13 more than the previous week and 158 more than the same period last year. There are a total of 1032 oil and gas drilling platforms in the United States, an increase of 11 from the previous week and 155 from the same period last year.

Although the increase in crude oil inventories in the United States has suppressed the increase in oil prices, the production of shale oil from the Permian Basin oilfield, the largest oil producing area in the United States, has exceeded pipeline transportation capacity, and local refineries are also unable to absorb this crude oil, resulting in oversupply in the market. Brent crude oil is more than $5 per barrel higher than WTI.

Speculators' net long holdings in light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased by 3%. According to the latest statistics from the Commodity Futures Commission of the United States, as of the week ending May 1, the position in crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 2621768, an increase of 46948. Large speculators held a net long position of 690727 trades in crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a decrease of 21696 trades from the previous week. Among them, the number of bulls decreased by 23722 hands; Short positions reduced by 2026 hands.

The net long position of managed funds in futures and options held on the New York Mercantile Exchange for US light and low sulfur crude oil decreased by 3.48%, while the net long position in futures and options held on the Intercontinental Exchange European market for US light and low sulfur crude oil increased by 14.26%. According to the new classification, as of the week ending May 1st, the net long position held by the management fund in crude oil futures and options on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased from 433118 in the previous week to 418047; Among them, the number of bulls decreased by 15495 hands; Short positions reduced by 424 hands. The net long position held by the management fund in US light and low sulfur crude oil futures and options on the Intercontinental Exchange Europe market increased from 22767 in the previous week to 26013; Among them, the number of bulls increased by 2455 hands; Short positions reduced by 791 hands.