Since the beginning of this year, there have been frequent turmoil in the international crude oil market, but since the emergence of the "floor price" on January 13th, the zero selling price of domestic refined oil has not been adjusted.

This deadlock was finally broken yesterday (April 26th). Yesterday afternoon, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice stating that starting from 24:00 on April 26, 2016, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel (standard products, the same below) will increase by 165 yuan and 160 yuan per ton, respectively.

Although this is the first increase in refined oil prices since the beginning of this year, the magnitude of this price increase is not significant compared to before, and the impact on consumers is limited.

Since February this year, international oil prices have been supported by expectations of oil producing countries freezing production, with a rebound rate of nearly 61.8%. Even if the 16 oil producing countries failed to come up with a final agreement on April 17th, market confidence remained strong and oil prices remained high throughout the cycle.

It is worth noting that this adjustment does not mean that the price of finished oil will be on the floor from this point on. At present, the international crude oil market is both bearish and bullish, such as high inventories in the United States while production is also declining; While Iran is driving production expectations, China, the United States, Europe, and Japan have also provided support for demand.

Product oil analyst Xie Mengmeng analyzed to a reporter from Daily Economic News that overall, oil prices may still be mainly subject to fluctuating adjustments. If there are no special bearish events, the next round of domestic product oil price adjustment may once again usher in an upward trend, which may be the first two consecutive increases within the year.

The Chinese economy provides demand support

The reporter noticed that in the ten working days before April 26th, several major events occurred in the international crude oil market.

On April 15th, the first quarter economic data released by the Chinese side achieved a "good start", especially with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in the overall electricity consumption data, which rebounded by 2.4 percentage points.

With the improvement of various economic data in China in the first quarter of this year, the demand for crude oil is also increasing, "Xie Mengmeng said.

The ship tracking profile compiled by Bloomberg last Friday shows that a total of 83 super large oil tankers are bound for China, the highest number since December 2014. If calculated according to the standard freight scale, these ships can load approximately 166 million barrels of crude oil.

According to Bloomberg, China's daily crude oil imports increased by 787000 barrels in the first quarter, at least the highest since Bloomberg began compiling customs data in 2004.

Then on April 17th, representatives of 16 oil producing countries gathered in Doha to hold a freeze production meeting. Although no agreement was reached at this meeting, which caused a 6% drop in oil prices at the opening of the morning market the next day, the Kuwaiti crude oil workers announced a strike on the same day, causing oil prices to soar by 8% on the same day.

Han Xiaoping, Vice President of China Energy Network, believes that in a sense, the data of the Chinese economy exceeding market expectations not only hedges the expectation of a decline in oil prices, but also makes the significance of Doha's "frozen production" seem to be weakening. In addition, the strike by Kuwaiti oil workers has led to another wave of international oil prices rising and triggered conditions for domestic oil price hikes.

On the US side, the inventory data released last Wednesday showed lower than expected growth, while the latest US crude oil production data also hit an 18-month low.

Although the fundamental principle of oversupply has not changed, many signs have revealed that supply is approaching demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said this week that in 2016, the output of non Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) countries will decline by the largest margin in decades, thus helping the oil market to restore the balance between supply and demand.

The profit margin of gas stations continues to climb

Under the combined influence of many factors, international oil prices have finally reached a floor price of $40 per barrel in the past 10 working days, making April 26th the first upward window since January 13th.

The range of this price adjustment is 165 yuan per ton of gasoline, equivalent to 93 # gasoline, with an increase of approximately 0.13 yuan per liter; The price of diesel has increased by 160 yuan per ton, with a price increase of 0.14 yuan.

Compared to previous adjustments, the magnitude of this adjustment is not significant. Taking a small private car with a fuel consumption of 10 liters per 100 kilometers and a monthly mileage of 2000 kilometers as an example, after this round of oil price increase, until the next price adjustment in about half a month, the private car owner only needs to spend about 13 yuan more on refueling.

A gas station owner told the Daily Economic News that ordinary people have adapted to the rise and fall of oil prices, and the news of price adjustments will not cause queuing for purchases.

Even so, this price adjustment still has significant benefits for gas stations. According to data provided by Zhuochuang Information, since the introduction of floor prices, the gap between wholesale and retail prices of domestic refined oil products has been continuously increasing. The gap between wholesale and retail prices of gasoline nationwide has increased from 1003 yuan/ton on January 13 to 1476 yuan/ton on April 26, while that of diesel has increased from 265 yuan/ton to 911 yuan/ton.

Xie Mengmeng introduced that due to factors such as slowing economic growth and structural adjustment, domestic demand for refined oil products is not strong, and wholesale prices have also remained at a relatively low level. At the same time, after the introduction of the "floor price", retail prices were locked in, and gas station profit margins continued to rise.

Xie Mengmeng's analysis indicates that after the implementation of this round of price adjustment, as the fundamentals of finished oil have not changed, the trend of sustained weak demand will continue. Therefore, after the price adjustment, it may be difficult for the wholesale prices of main gasoline and diesel to rise simultaneously, which will further widen the price difference between wholesale and retail gasoline and diesel, and the profits of refueling stations will also continue to increase.